Where People Are and Where They’re Going MABA MassachusettsRealEstate MaBuyerAgent FirstTimeHomeBuyers

 The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its 2024 population estimates, providing key metrics such as population growth, natural change (births minus deaths), domestic migration, international migration, and net migration. Now The National Association of Realtors has analyzed that data to identity the top 15 states in each of those categories.

 In some ways, the nation’s demographic trends stayed the course. For instance, the three most populous states were still California (thirty nine point four million), Texas (thirty one point three million), and Florida (twenty three point four million). Meanwhile, some states outpaced their previous years’ population growth: New Jersey (one point three percent), Washington (one point three percent), and Massachusetts (one percent) jumped up to join the top fifteen states with the fastest population growth in 2024.

 In other ways, there were big changes afoot. The most surprising was that the nation’s population grew at its highest rate in over two decades, with eight four percent of that surge due to international migration.

Birth Rates: Which States Bucked the Declining Trend?

Birth rates continued to decline nationwide in 2024, but a few states increased their number of births from the previous year:

• Idaho led with a two point two percent growth rate
• Montana (two point two percent)
• South Dakota (one point three percent)
• Utah (point five percent)
• Colorado (point three percent)
• Tennessee (point one percent)
• North Carolina (point five percent)

Natural Population Change: Organic Growth Equals Stability

 Natural population change is a foundational metric linked to an area’s economic stability: a positive natural change means that an area’s population grew organically, without relying on migration. Areas with high natural change tend to have younger populations, leading to a more balanced age distribution.

  The states with the most positive population change were:

• Missouri had the most significant improvement, reversing its 2023 negative change of nienty more deaths than births to a natural increase of one thousand five hundred and twenty one births in 2024
• Montana (one hundred and three percent increase)
• Tennessee (seventy four percent increase)
• Wisconsin (fifty percent increase)

 Of course, larger states still led in absolute numbers, with Texas (one hundred and fifty eight thousand seven hundred and fifty three) and California (one hundred and ten thousand four hundred and sixty six) each surpassing one hundred thousand more births than deaths in 2024.

Domestic Migration: Driving a Metro’s Economic Power

 Domestic migration, the movement of people between areas within the country, is a powerful driver of economic and demographic change. It not only provides the people and resources needed to grow a metro, it also reflects an area’s attractiveness. Domestic migration plays a foundational role in shaping long-term local development.

 The highest growth in domestic migration for 2024 were:

• Texas led with eight five thousand two hundred and sixty seven net domestic influx
• North Carolina (eighty two thousand two hundred and eighty eight)
• South Carolina (sixty eight thousand and forty three)
• Virginia and Washington both reversed their negative migration trends, with Virginia seeing a one hundred and fifty five percent increase in net domestic migration
• Utah had the largest growth in domestic migration, gaining nearly seven times more new residents than in 2023

International Migration: A Population Growth Driver

 The U.S. Census Bureau updated its methodology for estimating international migration in 2024, which resulted in higher estimates in nearly all areas. The U.S. added a net increase of two point eight million people due to international migration, making up eighty four percent of the nation’s total population growth last year (three point three million), and a huge increase from 2022 (one point seven million) and 2023 (two point three million).

 As expected, Florida and California led the nation in net international migration gains. While the top fifteen states with the largest gains remained consistent with 2023, California’s gains surged by twenty three percent.

Net Migration: The 50,000-Foot View of Population Change

 Net migration combines domestic and international migration to provide a high-level view of population shifts across states. Higher international migration resulted in higher net migration gains as well, with all states across the country experiencing positive net migration.

Some highlights:

• Florida maintained its position as the leader in net migration gains with four hundred and seventy five thousand three hundred and thirty nine, followed closely by Texas (four hundred and four thousand eight hundred and thirty six)
• Both New York and California reversed their net migration losses of previous years
• New York recorded eighty six thousand two hundred and forty four net migration gains
• California achieved over one hundred and twenty thousand net migration gains, making it the fourth state with the largest net migration gains, behind Florida, Texas, and North Carolina
• Illinois increased its net migration gains by over five times compared to 2023

Click here to read more on NAR’s population and migration report.

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