Examining 2024 Home Price Trends MABA MassachusettsRealEstate MaBuyerAgent FirstTimeHomeBuyers

 The October 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices were issued today by the S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI). In October 2024, the leading indicator of U.S. home values had an annual growth of three point six percent a modest decrease from the previous 2024 annual gains.

 Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, also commented on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index’s release and had this to say:

 “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices rose again in October. Prices have risen every month in 2024, even as mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high and as housing affordability has reached an all-time low.”

Measuring Year-Over-Year Gains, Cities With the Highest Growth

 The U.S. National Home Price Case-Shiller for the S&P CoreLogic Following a three point nine percent annual rise the month before, the NSA Index, which includes all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a three point six percent annual return for October.

“The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index picked up slightly in October, recording a three point six percent year-over-year gain in the prices of homes in the U.S.,” said Joel Berner, Senior Economist at Realtor.com. “This is a bit below last month’s mark of three point nine percent growth and comes in as the seventh consecutive month in which year-over-year gains have fallen. With that being said, the index also reached a new record high for the seventeenth month in a row. Home price appreciation seems to be settling into a more comfortable pace, just as inventory levels pick up going into 2025: welcome news for prospective buyers who continue to face the headwinds of high mortgage rates. The ten and twenty City Composites behaved similarly to the national index, with the ten City posting four point eight percent year-over-year growth (down from five point two percent in the previous month) and the twenty City coming in at four point two percent (four point six percent last month).”

 Following a five point two percent annual increase the month before, the ten City Composite showed an annual increase of four point eight percent. After rising four point six percent the month before, the twenty City Composite saw a four point two percent year-over-year increase. With a seven point three percent increase in October, New York once again had the largest annual gain out of the twenty cities. Chicago and Las Vegas came in second and third, with annual increases of six point two percent and five point nine percent, respectively. Tampa’s point four percent year-over-year growth was the lowest.

“There are signs that these pressures might be starting to have an effect on home price appreciation,” Sturtevant said. “In October, the Case-Shiller index rose three point six percent year-over-year, the lowest since August 2023. And while home prices continued to climb in all metros, the index shows weakening price appreciation in most regions. Home prices rose by less than one percent year-over-year in Tampa, Dallas and Denver, places where prices rose fast during the pandemic and inventory is climbing. Other measures of home prices (e.g. Zillow’s Home Value Index) have also shown that in some metros, home prices have started to fall on an annual basis.”

Sturtevant continued: “We are unlikely to see widespread home price declines in 2025, but there are some metros where fast-rising inventory and cooling demand will lead to falling prices in the year ahead. Our forecasts suggest that markets in Florida are at most risk of price declines in 2025. Other markets that surged during the pandemic, including metros in Utah and Colorado, are also poised for much cooler conditions in 2025.”

Examining Month-Over-Month Home Price Trends

October saw a turn in trends of the pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, twenty City Composite, and ten City Composite increasing trends. The national index saw a decline of negative point two percent, while the twenty City and ten City Composites showed returns of negative point two percent and negative point one percent, respectively.

“Home price appreciation varies significantly across the country,” Berner said. “In the South and West regions, where housing inventory has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, the Case-Shiller Index shows markets like Tampa (point thirty nine percent), Denver (point forty four percent), and Dallas (point eighty five percent) with less than a percentage point of year-over-year price growth. Meanwhile in the Northeast and Midwest, markets like New York (seven point twenty seven percent) and Chicago (six point twenty four percent) are driving the national-level price growth. Home builders have taken notice of this trend, and are throttling back construction in the South while pushing it forward in the Northeast.”

 Berner continued: “Purchasing a home is especially difficult right now because of high mortgage rates. These high rates gum up the gears of the housing market, leading to fewer sales and more modest price appreciation like the Case-Shiller Index showed today. For savvy and equity-rich buyers, though, this provides an opportunity to take advantage of relatively weak prices and an ever-growing set of options. Buyers without the ability to self-finance, especially first-time buyers who don’t already have equity in a home they could sell, will continue to struggle to find opportunities even as prices moderate. First-time buyers or existing owners looking to make a move would do well to target some of the markets we feature in our Top Housing Markets for 2025, which highlights several Southern and Western metros where we expect sales and prices to pick up in the coming year.”

 The U.S. National Index showed a point three percent month-over-month increase after seasonal adjustment, and the ten City and twenty City Composites both showed point three percent monthly increases.

S&P Dow Jones Indices U.S. Analysis

 The three composites’ housing boom/bust peaks and troughs, present values, and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs are as follows:

An overview of the October 2024 results (Top 10 U.S. Metros): If further source data is received, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for the previous 24 months may be updated.

“New York once again reigns supreme as the fastest-growing housing market with annual returns over double the national average,” said Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Two markets have dominated the top ranks, with New York leading all markets the past six months and San Diego the six months prior. New York is the only market sitting at all-time highs and one of just three markets with gains on the month. Accounting for seasonal adjustments shows a broader rally across the country.”

Using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) statistics, the following is an overview of the monthly changes:

 The markets have tracked and reported on the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indexes since the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indexes were introduced in early 2006. S&P Dow Jones indexes releases a seasonally adjusted data set for the headline indexes, seventeen of twenty markets with tiered price indices, and the five condo markets it tracks for analytical purposes.

 “Our National Index hit its seventeenth consecutive all-time high, and only two markets Tampa and Cleveland fell during the past month,” Luke said. “The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising but not keeping up with inflation and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up.

“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” Luke continued. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.” 

To read the full report, including more data, charts, and methodology, click here.

The post Examining 2024 Home Price Trends  first appeared on The MortgagePoint.

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