America’s New ‘Ghost Towns’ MABA MassachusettsRealEstate FirstTimeHomeBuyers MaBuyerAgent

 Americana has long held a fascination for Old West ghost towns, symbols of a bygone day. Now Joybird has redefined that term for the modern age. In their new study, “ghost towns” are modern metro areas on the edge of decline due to decreasing population and increasing home and retail vacancies.

What Defines a Ghost Town?

 To create their list of America’s modern-day ghost towns, Joybird analyzed data from the U.S. Census, Migration Patterns, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), mapping this against population declines, migration outflows, drops in new building permits, and rising vacancy rates for the One Hundred largest U.S. cities. 

The seven key factors in determining ghost towns are: 

• Percent change in population size (2020-2023) 
• Percent of young people who moved away (ages 16-26) 
• Rental vacancy rate 
• Homeowner vacancy rate 
• Percent of vacant homes empty for two years or longer 
• Retail vacancy rate 
• Percent change in new building permits (2022-2023) 

Each of the above is a contributing factor to a new ghost town, adding to a potential downward spiral. A city loses its vibrancy due to a shrinking population, while high rental and homeowner vacancy rates equal empty properties. Homes vacant for longer than two years show a pattern of long-term decline, while retail vacancy rates impact the local economy and decreasing new building permits show lesser investments.

Top Potential Ghost Towns in the U.S. 

The 10 U.S. cities most likely to become ghost towns are: 

• Augusta, GA 
• Winston-Salem, NC 
• St. Louis
• Detroit
• Baton Rouge, LA 
• Jackson, MS 
• New Orleans 
• Houston
• San Francisco 
• Scranton, PA 

And the most likely ghost town is…Augusta, Georgia. The home of the Master’s Golf Tournament has the fourth-highest rental vacancy rate (eight point nine percent) of the cities studied, and a retail vacancy rate (five point nine percent) that’s thirty four percent higher than the list average. And that’s not even including that twenty seven percent of Augusta’s vacant homes have been empty for two years or more. 

The third most likely ghost town is St. Louis. At six percent retail vacancy rate, the Gateway to the West is thirty five percent higher than the study’s average. The town had the second-worst population decline between 2020 and 2023 (negative six point six percent), which might explain why new building permits between 2022 and 2023 decreased by twenty two percent. 

Following St. Louis is Detroit, the fourth most likely ghost town, where nearly thirty percent of vacant homes have sat empty for two years or more. The city’s population is falling (down one percent between 2020 and 2023), and new home-building permits decreased fifteen percent in just one year (2022 to 2023).

Louisiana takes the crown for most cities in the top ten, with Baton Rouge (number five) and New Orleans (number seven). The former has the second-highest homeowner vacancy rate in the study (one point five), while the latter’s population shrank by over five percent between 2020 and 2023, which might explain why twenty nine percent of its vacant homes have sat empty for two years or longer. 

The Least Ghostly Potential Towns

On a happier note, Joybird listed the towns where things were more lively: 

• Madison, WI 
• Palm Bay, FL 
• Toledo, OH 
• San Diego
• Provo, UT 
• Fort Myers, FL 
• Lakeland, FL 
• Boston
• Seattle
• Austin

No ghostbusters needed in Madison, WI: it stands strong as the least likely U.S. city to go ghostly. Mad City boasts a homeowner vacancy rate of just point three percent, a stunning ninety one percent below the study’s average, with a rental vacancy rate of two point five percent (third-lowest in the study), and a retail vacancy rate twenty one percent lower than the national average. 

Florida takes its time in the sun with three of the top ten least likely ghost towns: Palm Bay (number two), Fort Myers (number six), and Lakeland (number seven). Palm Bay had the second-largest population increase in the study, a growth of thirteen point two percent between 2020 and 2023. Fort Myers was close behind with a twelve point seven percent population increase, while Lakeland’s population grew by eight point six percent over the same period. 

A twenty two point seven percent rise in new building permits between 2022 and 2023 landed San Diego in fourth place. Provo, UT is right behind them in fifth place, boasting the lowest rental vacancy rate in the study (two point three percent), with only three point eight percent of their vacant homes empty for two years or more. 

Rounding out the top ten least likely ghost towns is Austin, TX, thanks to a relatively low retail vacancy rate of three point four percent. Austin looks to be a hub for Gen Z, with only thirty percent of young adults between the ages of 16 and 26 years old moving away, compared to forty seven percent (Colorado Springs, CO) or forty three percent (Daytona Beach, FL). 

America’s Top Ghost Towns by Category 

Joybird listed the top cities with the highest scores in four key ranking categories: 

Cities with the largest drops in population between 2020 and 2023: 

• Number One: San Francisco, with a seven point four percent drop 
• Runners-up: St. Louis, MO (negative six point six percent), Jackson, MS (negative point five percent), New York, NY (negative six point two percent), New Orleans, LA (negative five point two percent) 

Cities with the largest homeowner vacancy rates:  

• Number One 1: Lakeland, FL, with a one point six percent vacancy rate 
• Runners-up: Baton Rouge, LA (one point five percent), Dayton, OH (one point four percent), Stockton, CA (one point four percent), Greenville, SC (one point three percent) 

Cities with the largest retail vacancy rates:  

• Number One: Riverside, CA, with a six point seven percent vacancy rate 
• Runners-up: Poughkeepsie, NY (six point six percent), Harrisburg, PA (six point four percent), Phoenix, AZ (six point three percent), Tucson, AZ (six point one percent) 

Cities with the highest percentage of homes vacant for over two years:  

• Number One: Dayton, OH, with a forty six point two percent vacancy rate 
• Runners-up: Jackson, MS (forty four point eight percent), Buffalo, NY (forty point one percent), Scranton, PA (thirty seven point nine percent), Pittsburgh, PA (thirty four point three percent) 

Lastly, in terms of new home construction, or lack thereof, Akron, OH takes the lead. The City of Invention had a staggering sixty nine percent drop in new building permits between 2022 and 2023.  

While sometimes seeming dire, none of this is forecasting, thankfully. Hopefully the impacted cities will focus on turning around these indicators and busting their ghosts. And although Lakeland, FL is one of the least likely cities to become a ghost town, it still has its struggles, such as the highest homeowner vacancy rate in the study at one point six percent.

Methodology: Starting with the One Hundred largest U.S. cities, Joybird applied rankings of seven factors regarding population decline, migration outflows, new construction, and vacancy rates; these indicate the city is losing residents, and that homes are being left empty. They then assigned a score from zero to five for each factor, with five representing the most “ghostly” conditions. Those scores were then totaled to give each city a final score from zero to fifty; the higher the score, the more ghostly the city. 

Click here to read more on Joybird’s study, and dive deeper into the data in their interactive table of the One HUndred cities and their scores. 

The post America’s New ‘Ghost Towns’ first appeared on The MortgagePoint.

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